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AAPL 5C Leaks

iphone-5c-test-678x508.jpg (Click to enlarge)


What price would Apple choose for a genuinely cheaper phone? There are four brackets worth looking at:

  1. $100-$150 – this is where budget Chinese manufacturers are starting to deliver usable dual-core 3G Android phones
  2. $150-$200 – the upper end of what is possible to sell to the unsubsidised prepay market – which is half the planet
  3. $200-$400 – almost certainly out of reach without subsidies but a solid mid-range smartphone price range
  4. Over $400 – similar price to the existing discounted two-year-old model, but with more up-to-date technology, possibly higher margins and probably an easier marketing sell than the “old” phone
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BBRY Up 4%

BBRY Up 4%: Lenovo Speculation, Sale Talk Trumps Estimate Cuts

Shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) are up 40 cents, or 4%, at $10.61, following yesterday’s 1% rise despite some negative remarks from the Street in recent days and speculation yesterday that Microsoft‘s (MSFT) acquisition of Nokia‘s (NOK) handset business will make life harder for BlackBerry in the smartphone world. Last night, bulls received some vaguely encouraging words in the form of a Bloomberg article that stated Microsoft is “keeping an eye on BlackBerry.” This morning, there was a raft of mixed news. From the special situations desk at ISI Group this morning came a brief item suggesting a take-out by Lenovo Group (0992HK), which has been speculated about for some time now, could still happen.

Prem Watsa has stepped down from the board and made recent public comments recommitting his 9.89% stake ( Fairfax Financial Holdings) to a future “going private” proposal if one should materialize. “We view the R/R of a long position as favorable and would recommend purchase of shares at the current price of $10.40 with a +40% upside target.”While we think a deal would make more sense for a strategic buyer ( Lenovo, Microsoft or HTC) a financial sponsor could achieve a favorable IRR given the cash flow anticipated from the robust legacy base of enterprise and consumer subs.

But other notes in the last 24 hours were not as upbeat. National Bank Financial‘s Kris Thompson yesterday reiterated an Underperform rating, and an $8 price target, writing that he thinks shipments of the newer BB10-based smartphones — the Z10, Q10, and Q5 — in the fiscal Q2 ended in August totaled perhaps 3 million units, down from his original estimate for 5 million units.

We have not heard much buzz around large Q10 deployments in Q2. BlackBerry’s publicly announced strategic review may be based on poor BB10 uptake. Management always said that the BB10 platform needed to be launched before a sale of the company was contemplated. We expect 3.8 mln BB7 shipments vs 4.1 mln last quarter. BlackBerry continues to invest in the old BB7 platform (e.g., new 9720 will be available in Asia, EMEA and Latin America in September). The idea is that these subscribers may in the future upgrade to BB10 products. When Nokia announced in February 2011 that it would adopt Microsoft Windows Phone, Symbian sales held in for a few quarters but then dropped precipitously. BB7 shipments may fall faster than expected.

Thompson doesn’t say how he comes by his data on BlackBerry’s sales trends. Thompson cut his estimate for the fiscal year ending next February to a total of 26.7 million handsets sold, at an average price of $150, producing revenue of $11.899 billion and a net loss per share of $1.78, on a non-GAAP basis. That is down from his prior estimate for 28.5 million units, $14.49 billion in revenue, and a 59-cent net loss. He thinks the fact the company has publicly talked about a “strategic review” of its options is a problem:

BlackBerry is in the headlines most days given the company’s rise and demise in the important smartphone market. Our view is that enterprises will further delay implementations and even die-hard consumers will catch wind that BlackBerry is for sale and not commit to the platform. The public for sale sign may be what torpedoes management’s valiant efforts to resuscitate a dying brand.

Another negative piece came across the transom this morning from Paul Peterson with boutique research firm BlueFin Research Partners. Peterson asserts there has been substantial cuts to production of the BB10 devices, and he expects a write-down of inventoryis in BlackBerry’s future:

If there was any hope that Blackberry sales were going to take hold with the Q10 and Q5 launches after the failed Z10 intro, that optimism now appears to have faded. The BBRY component supply chain has experienced massive cuts in the last few weeks, with some suppliers seeing multiple rounds of reductions according to our checks. This is the third round of forecast reductions in the last four months, and a clear signal that the Q series is not going to salvage the BB10 family in our view. We believe current fiscal year forecasts are less than half of management’s initial expectations. In fact, our checks indicate that some suppliers are seeing close to zero demand from BBRY in the next several months due to bulging component and finished goods inventories. In our March 13th BBRY Supply Chain Update, we highlighted a surging supply chain prior to the Z10 launch that was indicative of a management team that was ‘all in’ for the BB10 launches, while noting their less than stellar track record: “It goes without saying that BBRY has fumbled more than a few forecasts in the recent past. Time will tell whether management is on target (or not) this time around.” Clearly management was very far from the target this time around. In the company’s last fiscal quarter, BBRY inventories grew nearly 50% to $887M as Z10 sales disappointed, while the company supported the Q10 and prepared for the upcoming Q5 launch. We think inventories have ballooned even further this quarter, with Q Series demand disappointing as well. Our checks indicate that BBRY has amassed significant component and finished goods internal inventories, while many carriers and retailers are not restocking. The executive in charge of the supply chain operations was dismissed recently, evidently the scapegoat for the company’s inventory woes. As Yogi Berra infamously once said, “this looks like Déjà vu all over again.” Last year, the Bold 9900 failed to live up to BBRY’s expectations and the company took a huge inventory write off on Blackberry handset and Playbook inventory. This year it’s likely to happen again with the BB10 models. The fate of BBRY hardware sales depended on the market acceptance of the Q Series to leverage their existing QWERTY base, and the lack of meaningful traction likely means that this story doesn’t end well for BBRY as a standalone hardware provider.

Peterson doesn’t say where he comes by the information about BlackBerry’s supply chain.

Update: The Wall Street Journal‘s David Benoit and Will Connors this afternoon report that BlackBerry “is aiming to run a fast auction process that could be wrapped up by November, according to people familiar with the Matter.”

Shares of BlackBerry rose another 19 cents, almost 2%, to $10.94 in late trading

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Apple is likely to announce an update to the Apple TV next week

A close reading of shipping data reveals Apple is likely to announce an  update to the Apple TV next week.


Global trading platform Panjiva has a  blog post about shipments to Apple. It says on August 11 and 25, Apple  received a shipment called “Set Top Box with Communication Function” from BYD  Precision Manufacture in Shenzhen, China. On August 18, it got a shipment called  “Set Top

with Communication Function” from BYD Precision Manufacture in Shenzhen,  China. On August 18, it got a shipment called “Set Top Boxes.”

Om Malik, who first picked up on the Panjiva post, notes that Apple is due for a refresh to the Apple TV, especially with iOS 7, Apple’s new mobile  software coming. (Apple TV runs on a version of iOS.) Also, Apple has been  adding more and more apps to the Apple TV, so its internals could probably use a  bump.

We don’t think this is going to be a major update, but if you’re in the  market for a new Apple TV, we suggest waiting a week or two


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Gold Iphone5S leaks

Here is a photo of a gold iPhone 5S that  Dickson posted to his blog Friday night:


Dickson says  he buys them from people who “work for Apple in China.”

Dickson  says Australian National Security visited his site 67 times this  summer and that Apple employees visited his site 900 times in August,  but that he isn’t worried.

He told Elmer-Dewitt, “Some  people think I may be breaking the law, but they don’t really know what I do.  I’m not breaking any laws that other people don’t do.”

Dickson says  he makes enough money from his site that he could “go over to Louis  Vuitton today and buy one of their bags with the money I made this  month.”

Read more:  http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-5s-and-iphone-5c-leak-source-2013-9#ixzz2dxnU3uCr

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Apple Schedules Sept. 10 Event

AppleAAPL +2.07% sent invitations to the media for a Sept. 10 event, where the company is widely expected to unveil its next-generation iPhones.

Apple invited members of the media to a “special event” Sept. 10.

Apple said the event will occur at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters, beginning 1 p.m. ET. The invitation included an image of pastel colored circles of green, blue, purple, red and yellow, with an Apple logo in the center. Below the image was Apple’s tagline for the event: “This should brighten everyone’s day.”

The invitation comes as Apple and its competitors are gearing up for the important holiday shopping season with a bevy of new product announcements. Samsung and Sony both will be holding events in Berlin this week, during which they are expected to show new smartphones. Samsung also is expected to show its “Galaxy Gear” smartwatch, part of a new category of “wearable” devices that could set off a new leg of growth for the technology industry.

Apple is widely expected to unveil a pair of new iPhones at the event, breaking its years-long tradition of introducing just one device with a varying array of enhancements and new technologies. In addition to a new high-end phone, Apple also has been developing a lower-cost model that eschews metal casings and comes in a variety of colors, people familiar with the matter have said.

Those phones are both expected to begin shipping from manufacturers in early September, those people added.

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My Blogger Page Views till date.

Just an fyi.. want to share my Blogger Page- www.weeklyoptionplays.blogspot.com

Pageviews by Countries

Graph of most popular countries among blog viewers
Entry Pageviews

Site Hits so far(6months) lots of people are following my picks and updates..

Entry Pageviews

United States












United Kingdom


















Pageviews by Browsers

Entry Pageviews



4382 (47%)



1697 (18%)

Internet Explorer


1462 (15%)



977 (10%)



335 (3%)

Mobile Safari


227 (2%)



166 (1%)



27 (<1%)



15 (<1%)



8 (<1%)
Image displaying most popular browsers

Pageviews by Operating Systems

Entry Pageviews



5400 (67%)



837 (10%)



598 (7%)



528 (6%)



319 (3%)



260 (3%)

Other Unix


40 (<1%)

Windows NT 6.1


18 (<1%)



7 (<1%)



4 (<1%)
Image displaying most popular platforms
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Read on $GLD $1,422.30 and above in play for the week

  Russia reported overnight that ballistic missiles were fired in the Mediterranean, which led to some concerns that a strike on Syria could be getting underway. These launches turned out to be Israeli missile tests, but the bottom line is that until the Syrian sideshow is behind us, we can expect continued volatility.

(Read more: Russia raises alarm over Israeli missile test)

Gold found itself sliding into the open on Sunday night of the holiday session, reaching a low of $1,373.60. The market stabilized quickly, and hugged the $1,391.80 lows from Friday for most of this long session.


Play Video
Schiff: Gold to skyrocket when people ‘wake up to reality’
Peter Schiff makes the case that gold will go stratospheric, with CNBC’s Mandy Drury and the “Futures Now” traders.

  Major support will now come in at our $1,383 to $1,384.10 level, which was held Tuesday morning. A close below this band of support will be bearish as we head into nonfarm payrolls on Friday. We would expect a retest to press the market lower, putting $1,352 into the cards.

(Read more: Gold steadies ahead of data, monitors Syria crisis)

Although gold faces directional uncertainty, and it is unlikely that you will see any big bets made this week ahead of nonfarm payrolls, you should still keep your trades short and continue to use the levels. Remember that between the jobs report and a critical FOMC meeting on Sept. 17 and 18, traders have a lot to look forward in the next few weeks.

On Tuesday, $1,401 will be resistance, as this session’s high is $1,399. Only a close above the $1,407 resistance will help neutralize this bearish activity, and encourage a possible test to the top side of the range at $1,422.30.

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nice read on $NFLX

Netflix (NFLX) has certainly had its ups and downs in the past, but in my opinion it has done an admirable job of translating its business from DVD rentals to primarily online streaming, and has become the 800lb gorilla of streaming, what “fools” like to call a first mover. Additionally, Netflix became the single biggest source of web traffic in North America back in 2011, and now mobile traffic has almost doubled in the last 12 months.

The price woes of Netflix stock are clearly linked to the announcement to separate the DVD and streaming services, which occurred on July 12, 2011. This announcement was quickly followed by a strong downdraft in the stock price, and in October of the same year Netflix announced that it had lost 800,000 subscribers in Q3, the quarter in which the split was announced. NFLX also reversed the decision to split DVD rental into Quickster, and said that the DVD rental arm would remain within the NFLX brand.

By the beginning of 2012, NFLX announced that they had recovered the lion’s share of the subscribers lost during Q3 2011, and things looked up a bit until, in April 2012, they formed FLIXPAC, a political action committee which wasn’t well received, and the stock price plunged once again. It appears that investors saw NFLX having a crisis of identity during this period, with anger by subscribers over increased cost to the consumer with a split between DVD and streaming. EPS also plunged during this period, going from a robust $1.26 in Q2 2011, to an anemic -$0.08 in Q1 2012. Even so, EPS was consistently better than consensus estimates.

By Oct 2012, the NFLX stock price began to turn around. Service in Canada, the UK, Ireland, and Central America was already in place, and Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland were to be added by year end. While concern over NFLX killing the golden DVD goose continues, the fact is that revenue from the DVD subscriptions has fallen continuously since mid-2011, while streaming revenue continues to increase, accounting for roughly 70% of NFLX revenue at this time, and no wonder, who wants to wait for the mail man when a click of a mouse provides instant gratification? In spite of the reduced DVD revenue, overall revenue continues to climb as streaming supplants renting.

Since bottoming on August 3, 2012 at 52.81, NFLX has flown. Their waffling business plan has solidified, they continue to add content, including original content, and the recent 14 Emmy Nominations for that original content shows that NFLX can compete with the big boys, perhaps even surpassing Jeffrey Bewkes’ Albanians.

For the past 3 years NFLX has consistently shown positive surprise on its earnings, and has been rewarded for it, with the exception of that period roughly defined between July 2011 and July 2012 when NFLX was trying to find itself. Revenue has grown consistently, so there’s no reason to expect that EPS will not continue to make a comeback from its former drop.

(click to enlarge)

Technically, the events above are obvious in the chart, and NFLX’s return to a profitable model has been handsomely rewarded in the past year.

(click to enlarge)

NFLX has broken through nearly all resistance levels approaching the $300 mark of its former glory. There remain minor resistance levels at 270, 280 and 290, but they really are minor, and beating the EPS estimate of $0.40 could blow the price right past that resistance.

Initial reaction to the report was a mild pull back, and that’s just fine, I would prefer to see the stock price advance in an orderly fashion rather than continued gaps up as the past 2 reports have prompted.

(click to enlarge)

Should the price of the stock move beyond the 300 dollar mark, I would expect to see the price rebound from a new high to test the 300 dollar level. If the $300 level holds, I think that the price continues to climb, and if not, then a retracement of the run over the past year would be in order, however, given NFLX reporting history, I expect that the numbers will at least be in line, most likely better, and we can continue to see NFLX improve subscription, content and revenue.

There are, of course, a number of “also ran” companies such as Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), Verizon (VZ), Apple (AAPL), Hulu and Roku, to name a few, trying to break into the action. Many argue that they will be the death of NFLX, but in my view, they have seen the promise of streaming and want a piece of the action, so rather than being a great concern for NFLX they represent confirmation of the streaming concept, however, those others haven’t gotten it right, at least not yet in my opinion. Verizon has video on demand, but my personal experience is that selection is poor and rotates quickly, so don’t blink or you will miss what you wanted to see. Verizon is also teaming with Redbox in an effort to improve. Amazon and Apple have severe price model issues in my opinion, and I’m not willing to pay through the nose to stream TV or movies. I have Verizon FIOS, and my family of 5 hardly ever watches that overpriced content. I’ve had HULU PLUS as well, and what has everyone in the house been watching? Netflix. Verizon’s VOD is annoying at best, with their extremely limited selection and slow interface connection speed. HULU is just plain annoying. Back in the day we suffered commercial television because it was free. Why on Earth would I want to pay to stream commercial television if I could avoid it?

NFLX is fast, has a good, if not excellent interface with an excellent recommendation algorithm. It is true that NFLX does not necessarily have the latest shows, but that is changing. When I first subscribed just a short 12 months or so ago there were very few programs that I normally watched on cable available, but now there are many, and it continues to improve. The lack of front running programs was actually a blessing, as we discovered many jewels that we otherwise might have missed such as Midsomer Murders, Good Guys, Life, Heroes, etc.

Netflix’s overall trend looks good, and there appears to be room to run higher.

(click to enlarge)

EPS has moved well with the price movement since before the $300 high, showing a reduced likelihood that NFLX is in a price bubble.

(click to enlarge)

In conclusion, NFLX is the number one streaming service by volume with the largest content library.

Netflix is also the single largest bandwidth user on the internet. The stock price took a hit in 2011/2012 due to lack of direction, but it has since recovered the bulk of that loss, and stands at the cusp of regaining its former valuation glory. Its valuation is very high, the highest, by far, in its sector, but it deserves that valuation because of the promise that it shows and because others in the sector are laggards, not the other way around.

Source: Why I’m Long Netflix

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Comedy Sensation Russell Peters Premieres Latest Stand-Up And Docu-Series October 14 Only On Netflix

  • Russell Peters in Netflix "Notorious." Click Here to Download ImageView PhotoRussell Peters in Netflix “Notorious.” Click Here to Download Image


Symbol Price Change
NFLX 289.00 +5.09


BEVERLY HILLS, Calif., Sept. 3, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Netflix will premiere the Netflix comedy special “Notorious” and docu-series “Russell Peters vs. the World” on Monday, October 14th at 12:01 AM.  Peters’ 70-minute stand-up comedy performance and four part docu-series following Peters on his global Notorious tour will be available to stream in all territories where Netflix is available – U.S., Canada, the UK, Ireland, Latin America, the Nordics and the Netherlands.

(Photo:  http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20130903/SF72473)

(Logo:  http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20101014/SF81638LOGO)

“Russell’s genius is his uncanny gift to identify the idiosyncratic within all of us,” says Lisa Nishimura, VP of Originals, Netflix. “He is prolific, fresh and a global force that will resonate with our members around the world.”

“I’ve always prided myself on being outside the box and slightly ahead of the curve, which is why Netflix is the perfect fit for me,” says Peters.   “Plus, the web took my career to a whole other level – we both owe a lot to the Internet.”

Filmed live at the Allphones Arena in Sydney, Australia on March 15, 2013, “Notorious” features global phenomenon Peters as he brings his laugh-out-loud observational comedy to audiences for his world tour of the same name.  He uses humor and blends in stories about his Anglo-Indian family to touch on racial, ethnic, class and cultural stereotypes.

Peters has sold-out arenas from Madison Square Garden to the Sydney Opera House, and his Notorious World Tour has become the highest attended comedy tour in the history of Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Lebanon, South Africa, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and his home country of Canada, selling over 300,000 tickets globally.  “Russell Peters vs. the World” will chronicle Peters behind the scenes of that tour.

Previous stand-up performances “Russell Peters: Red, White and Brown”, “Russell Peters: The Green Card Tour”, and “Russell Peters: Outsourced” are currently available on Netflix.

“Notorious” and “Russell Peters vs. the World” is executive produced by Russell Peters and Clayton Peters.

On November 10th, 2012 Peters became the first comedian to play Brooklyn’s new Barclays Center. Over 10,000 fans attended the show, making it the largest comedy show ever in the history of the New York City borough.

Peters’ last special, The Green Card Tour LIVE From the O2 Arena, was recorded in London in 2010.  The special was broadcast on Showtime, Comedy Central and Netflix USA and Netflix UK.

In 2009, Peters set a UK attendance record for the highest attendance for a one-off comedy show with over 16,000 fans attending his show at the O2 Arena. Peters also went on to have the highest attended comedy shows at Sydney, Australia’s Acer Arena and Melbourne’s Rod Laver Arena in 2010.

Starting in 2008, Peters was one of the first stand-up comedians to self-finance, self-produce and distribute his own comedy specials and DVDs, with Red, White and Brown and 2011’s, The Green Card Tour LIVE from the O2 Arena.  The DVDs went on to sell over 250,000 units across North America.

Listed on this year’s Forbes List as one of the top five Highest Earning Comics in the U.S., Russell Peters has spent the past 24 years building a career to become one of the biggest comics in the world.

About Netflix, Inc.

Netflix is the world’s leading Internet television network with more than 37 million members in 40 countries enjoying more than one billion hours of TV shows and movies per month, including original series. For one low monthly price, Netflix members can watch as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, on nearly any Internet-connected screen. Members can play, pause and resume watching, all without commercials or commitments

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August Auto Sales are Strong- $F


  August is the kind of month automakers and auto dealers love.

Demand is growing and supply is relatively limited, so dealers have had pricing power, and last month there was one extra sales day compared with August 2012—meaning that this August had five weekends versus four last year.

That combination is why many expect the raw sales numbers reported by automakers to be exceptionally high compared with a year ago.

Don’t be fooled. What really matters for the industry and for dealers is the SAAR, or monthly sales rate.

(Read more: Auto leasing surges to record high)

Auto dealers report shortages
What’s hot and what’s not in autos right now? CNBC’s Phil LeBeau reports on the shortages of specific auto models. Automakers aim for 60 days to 70 days’ supply, but the Subaru Impreza Wagon, as well as the Mercedes G Class, both have just 15 days.

  Most on Wall Street are expecting the August SAAR to come in at 15.7 million or 15.8 million vehicles. Remember, that’s the pace of sales, not how many vehicles were actually sold.

This September has two fewer sales day than September 2012. That will mean raw sales that appear relatively low, but the real question will be the SAAR for September.

If sales stay on the same pace as they have for most of this summer, September will have a SAAR of close to 16 million vehicles.

Ultimately, many on Wall Street will combine August and September, look at the combined sales rate and then compare it against the SAAR from earlier this year.

Any way you measure it, auto sales remain very strong and that’s not expected to change.

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